Kazakhstan: market of alternate grains and pulses. Results of 2018/19 MY and forecasts for 2019/20 MY

Source

APK-Inform

567

In the current season, the market of alternate grains and pulses in Kazakhstan faced the downward production trends. According to the Ministry of Economy of Kazakhstan, the planted areas under lentils and buckwheat declined by 60% and 30%, respectively, compared with the previous season thus the areas reached their 4-year minimum. At the same time, the areas under peas increased to the historic high level 126 thsd tonnes. The production volumes of these crop expected in 2019/20 MY and the main tendencies of the key niche crops market in Kazakhstan are the main topics of the article.

 

Oats

According to the USDA estimates, in 2019/20 MY Kazakhstan is the 12th largest global producer of oats and 4th among the CIS countries. However, if in Russia and Ukraine the tendency of this crop production is rather downward, it is upward in Kazakhstan. According to estimations of analysts of APK-Inform Agency, the production of oats in the current season will total 331 thsd tonnes, which is almost the same to the figures in 2018/19 MY. We should note that for the last 10 years, the growth of production of this grain totaled 1.6 times, due to the tendency of the areas increasing (247 thsd ha in 2019, as opposed to 152 thsd ha in 2009) and the increase of the yield.

 

 

The planted areas under oats are mostly concentrated in 5 oblasts — 91% of the general areas. The leading region is Kostanay oblast — in 2019 the planted areas under oats totaled 75 thsd ha (30% of the general areas), which is 15% higher year-on-year. Also, there are large areas in Akmola oblast (25%), North-Kazakhstan (14%) and Pavlodar (14%) oblasts. The 5th largest producing area is East-Kazakhstan oblast (8%). We should mention the tendency of the areas increase under oats in Kostanay oblast and their decline in East-Kazakhstan oblast.

 

Dynamics of the planted areas under oats

Oblast

Planted areas, thsd ha

Changes

Share in 2019

2018

2019

Kostanay

65,3

75,0

15%

30%

Akmola

60,8

61,6

1%

25%

North Kazakhstan

37,1

34,6

-7%

14%

Pavlodar

35,0

34,4

-2%

14%

East Kazakhstan

21,5

18,6

-14%

8%

 

Nearly all of the harvested oats volumes are consumed domestically and the export deliveries are rather small. One of the priority approach of the grain use is the production of the feeds, which is rather popular in terms of the state policy of the active development of the meat production industry.

However, in 2018/19 MY the international trade of oats received a new spur: the deliveries of the crop to the foreign markets reached record high for the last 10 season — 28.9 thsd tonnes, which is nearly 10 times higher compared with 2017/18 MY. The main volumes of Kazakh grain were delivered to Norway (15.1 thsd tonnes). According to the USDA in 2019/20 MY the production of oats in Kazakhstan will increase to 300 thsd tonnes which will allow to significantly increase the export deliveries.

Also, the purchases of Kazakh grain were increased by Afghanistan (7 thsd tonnes, as opposed to 0.8 thsd tonnes in 2017/18 MY) and Uzbekistan (4.8 thsd tonnes, as opposed to 1.9 thsd tonnes). Ukraine was the 4th largest importer of oats from Kazakhstan and purchased 1.8 thd tonnes.

 

Buckwheat

According to the analysts, Kazakhstan is still one of the 10 largest global producers of buckwheat. However, according to the state statistics data, the planted areas under this crop in 2019/20 MY declined to their 4-year minimum — to 69.8 thsd ha (-30% y-o-y, and -53% compared with the record number in 2017/18 MY). The production of the crop in the current season according to the APK-Inform analysts will total 55 thsd tonnes.

 

 

The main production areas under buckwheat are located in Pavlodar oblast — in 2019, the areas totaled 52.3 thsd ha or 75% of the general structure. Also, nearly 19% (13 thsd ha) of the areas were located in East-Kazakhstan oblast.

 

Dynamics of the planted areas under buckwheat

Oblast

Planted areas, thsd ha

Changes

Share in 2019

2018

2019

Pavlodar

61,5

52,3

-15%

75%

East Kazakhstan

24,7

13,0

-48%

19%

 

In terms of the distribution of the grain, the domestic consumption dominates. According to State Customs Control of Kazakhstan, in 2018/19 MY the exports of buckwheat totaled 4.7 thsd tonnes of which 4.5 thsd tonnes were exported to Ukraine. However, in this case we can probably speak of the re-exports of Russian buckwheat via Kazakhstan.

 

Lentils

In 2017/18 MY the production of lentils in Kazakhstan had peaked up stream and reached the record — 313 thsd tonnes, but in the next two seasons the country lowered the production of the grain. According to the State Statistics Service of Kazakhstan, in the current season the planted areas under the grain totaled 92 thsd ha. However, analysts of APK-Inform Agency estimated the planted areas slightly higher — 116.4 thsd ha and they forecast the production of the grain at 115.8 thsd tonnes, which is nearly twice lower compared with the record volume harvested in 2017/18 MY.

The main factors of both ups and downs of the lentils production were: the dynamics of the global prices and the shifts of the main importers of the grain.

Lentils has lost its market attractiveness for the agriproducers that caused the decrease of the interest in the cultivation favouring other crops.

 

 

The decline of the planted areas by nearly 60% was observed in almost all production oblasts, including North Kazakhstan oblast (53% of the general areas), Akmola (25%) and Kostanay oblasts (15%). In 2019, the share of these three oblasts totaled 92% of the crop general areas in Kazakhstan.

 

Dynamics of the planted areas under lentils

Oblast

Planted areas, thsd ha

Changes

Share in 2019

2018

2019

North Kazakhstan

165,0

61,2

-63%

53%

Akmola

76,3

28,7

-62%

25%

Kostanay

42,3

17,5

-59%

15%

 

On the domestic market of Kazakhstan, lentils are of low demand and the crop is mostly exported. Turkey is traditionally the leading importer of Kazakh lentils. In 2018/19 MY, the exports to Turkey totaled 121 thsd tonnes, as opposed to 119.6 thsd tonnes y-o-y. The 2nd and 3rd largest importers of lentil from Kazakhstan are Iran and Afghanistan which imported 9.8 thsd tonnes and 9.2 thsd tonnes respectively.

 

 

Peas

Unlike lentils, the planted areas under peas continue increasing. According to the official data, this year the areas reached nearly 126 thd ha which is 24% higher y-o-y. The analysts of APK-Inform Agency estimate the production of peas at 163 thsd tonnes with the yield at 13 t/ha.

 

 

The analysis of the regional distribution of the peas production demonstrates that nearly all peas are cultivated in four oblasts of Kazakhstan — North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Akmola and East Kazakhstan oblasts. To date, there are no official data concerning the planted areas in the reporting oblasts.

From 2016/17 MY, the share of the exports in the general distribution of peas significantly increased. In 2018/19 MY, the volumes of the crop delivered on the foreign markets totaled 79.3 thsd tonnes. This number became record high for this crop, and it was 7.6 times higher compared with the previous three season.

 

 

In 2018/19 MY, Afghanistan was the main buyers of the Kazakh peas importing 29.3 thsd tonnes (+24% y-o-y). The second largest importer was Uzbekistan, which 3.3 times increased the purchases of the crop compared with 2017/18 MY. Spain declined the import of the Kazakh peas by 60% y-o-y but stayed as the 3rd largest importer.

Finalizing the results of 2018/19 MY in terms of the alternate grains and pulses market, we can state that the agrarians are searching for the profitable and high marginality crops. The climate of Kazakhstan which is favourable for the cultivation of pulses stipulated the boost of their production, bur the global tendencies in this market segment force the Kazakh agriproducers to search for the new and more attractive crops. The issues of the global importers demand will play the key role in the formation of the pulses market development.

On the market of buckwheat, considering the periodicity of its production, it is expected that the planted areas will increase in 2020/21 MY. Speaking of oats, there will be no significant changes in areas and production in a middle term perspective, due to the stable demand from the domestic market.

 

Natalia Gavruk, APK-Inform Agency

 

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