According to APK-Inform figures, since the beginning of May 2019 the Ukrainian export market (FOB terms) developed the tendency of gradual increasing of corn prices. In May 2019, the grain prices increased by 7-8 USD/t, in June — up 10-12 USD/t, and for the first half of July — up nearly 5 USD/t.
The price trend mainly developed in terms of the persistent concerns about the decline of corn production in the USA, due to the adverse weather conditions, as well as increasing of the interest of Chinese importers in Ukrainian corn caused by the ongoing trade conflict between the USA and China. So, if in May-June of 2017/18 MY Ukraine supplied almost 3.2 mln tonnes of corn on foreign markets, including 434 thsd tonnes on the Chinese market, then in the same period of 2018/19 MY the figures significantly increased, and totaled 6 mln tonnes and 867 thsd tonnes, respectively.
At the same time, the expected second largest harvest of corn in Ukraine after the last year record, the forecast of record corn production in Latin America, and the growth of export volumes of Brazilian corn to China, somewhat slow down the development of more active upward price rates of the grain of Ukrainian origin. Also, by the end of June 2019 the weather conditions in the US corn belt improved, which caused the reporting increasing of the production forecasts of the US grain, as well as the forecasted high carry-over stocks of corn in the USA, brought some pressure on the prices.
Also, in the beginning of May 2019 the offer prices of corn spot deliveries varied within 168-174 USD/t FOB, but then as of July 16 they mainly totaled 190-198 USD/t FOB, and in some cases the prices for the shipload lots of Panamax type even reached 200 USD/t FOB with delivery in the middle of August 2019. In addition, the fixed increasing of demand of importers for the Ukrainian grain both on the spot and forward markets provided some support for the prices.
You can become acquainted with more detailed information about the prospects of the Ukrainian and global corn markets from the leading experts, speaking within frames of the international conference Middle East Grains&Oils Congress: Beirut edition (September 18-19), in Beirut, Lebanon, which enters the TOP-20 of countries-importers of Ukrainian corn.